Scenario Planning

A strategic planning technique that models multiple possible future states by varying key assumptions, typically a best case, base case, and worst case, to prepare the business for a range of outcomes.

Founders who plan only for the expected scenario are blindsided by anything that deviates from it. Scenario planning builds mental and financial resilience by forcing honest engagement with what could go wrong and what could go right.

Before a major product launch, a founder models three scenarios. In the best case she sells 500 units; in the base case 200; in the worst case 60. She pre-decides at what point she would cut costs, delay hiring, or accelerate spend, so each scenario has a pre-built response plan.